Gene Munster对Tesla的看法与分析更中肯。他是看多Tesla的分析师。详情见内。 (谈股论金) 498次阅读
观看【雅歌】的博客Tesla Inc (NASDAQ: TSLA) surprised Wall Street Wednesday, posting a strong second-quarter earnings beat.
EPS came in at negative $1.33 with $2.79 billion in sales compared to consensus estimates of negative $1.80 and $2.55 billion in sales. The stock jumped to open Thursday at $34.
The results helped bolster Loup Ventures co-founder Gene Munster’s already bullish view of Tesla, although he acknowledged “there will be disappointments” as its story plays out.
“We caution that it will take time for the Tesla story to unfold … but Tesla’s [Q2] results and outlook around production and demand suggest the company is on a track to be a significant beneficiary in the global paradigm shift to EV and autonomy,” said Munster in a note.
Tesla’s Results Bode Well For The Short-Term
Management said on the call that the Model 3 production ramp is on track to meet guidance.
But if that was not enough for investors, the company also reported 455,000 net reservations for the car and has seen an average of 1,800 added daily since delivering the first vehicle off the line July 28.
Munster highlighted Tesla has not seen Model S and Model X sales cannibalized by the Model 3, a substantial analyst fear.
Among other points that stuck out to Munster were Tesla’s higher-than-expected gross margins and reaffirmed capital expenditure and profitability guidance.
Big Things To Come, But ‘Brace For Future Disappointments’
Munster sees six potential disappointments for investors over the next two years.
First, the company may need to raise more money. One reason for that might be to work on potential disappointment No. 2, missed production targets.
Tesla may need the capacity to produce as much as 600,000 cars a year, in which case a new factory is warranted, disappointment No. 3.
Fourth, Teslas may not be fully autonomous until 2021 rather than in 2019. Besides missing that target, 2019 could also be when potential disappointment No. 5, slipping demand, is caused by a reduction in federal tax incentives.
Finally, other automakers and tech companies will continue to announce progress toward their own electric and autonomous vehicles.
Gigafactories 4–6 Are A Huge Head Start For Tesla
Related to potential disappointments two and three is one of the earnings call’s most notable points: CEO Elon Musk saying a new gigafactory would likely be built in China.
That brings the number of expected new gigafactories to three, with the other two to be built in the United States and Europe, respectively.
Munster believes it will take up to six years to complete these factories. But despite being years away, the very fact that plans are in the works is an advantage for Tesla.
“Other automakers need to build factories at a similar scale and have yet to even break ground on their version of a Gigafactory,” noted Munster. Traditional automakers saw big declines in sales in July, furthering pressure on them to innovate.
The new gigafactories would help to solve Tesla’s biggest challenge: production.
Tesla’s Core Advantage
Despite the significant challenges ahead, Munster highlighted the most important reason he has faith in Tesla when he visited Benzinga HQ Wednesday before the earnings report.
The people with a stake in Tesla are on a “shared mission to change the world,” said Munster.
All of Tesla’s employees, “from the management team to the custodians,” are shareholders and take part in a culture that “is not something that exists at traditional automakers,” he added.
At last check, shares of Tesla were up 6.73 percent at $347.81.
完整帖子:
- 8/4/2017 《每日资讯时事综述股市快报》 - LilyFisher, 2017-08-03
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尽管油价在48.65寻获支撑,但现在断言从50.43开始的跌势结束还为时过早。阻力位在49.70(第一个图),若升破可能涨至50.08-50.43区间。 - LilyFisher, 2017-08-03
- 太好了。谢谢!,又快又好!希望百合多参与。 - 新东, 2017-08-03
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- Gene Munster对Tesla的看法与分析更中肯。他是看多Tesla的分析师。详情见内。 - 雅歌, 2017-08-04
- Jim Cramer's One Issue With Tesla's Earnings Report - 雅歌, 2017-08-04
- Goldman Sachs Raises Tesla's Price Target A Month After Cutting It, Still Remains Bearish - 雅歌, 2017-08-04
- 然而这所有的分析没有考虑到TESLA盈利的可能性。TESLA的电动车的gross margin是22%-25%,为何从来没有赚过钱?(除了2016年的Q3之外)。 G.M=25%,表示一部售价8万美元的EV,制造成本是6万美元,毛利2万美元。这不包括销售成本和运输成本。运送费一部车平均是800美元。TESLA是透过网站销售的,销售人员的费用几乎为零。就算维持网路的费用和网路促销费用也不可能太多,估计平均一部车合理的花费不超过200美元。扩厂的费用是一次性的,不算在内。今年第二季度的产量还比第一季度的产量略少。所以是非生产,非销售部门的开销,导致(2万-1000)=18000美元的毛利/辆变成巨亏,你相信吗?毛利是售价扣除所有的生产费用,包括零件和材料费用,生产人工薪资,电费的盈利。这不包含设备折旧,利息,其他非生产的人事费用。一个季度约22500辆已定型成熟的Model X和Model S,至少按毛利计算应该是=22500*19000元=427.5M元!而TSLA却赔了218.5M元。相差了646M元。到哪里去了?再说Tesla为了让Gross Margin提高,把员工薪水降低,然后发股票补偿。还有把生产管理人阶层变成非生产经理的薪资支出,这一点是扭曲了真正的Gross Margin。未来将开始量产的Model 3, 从成本上最多比Model S少一万美元,可是售价却少了4万美元。所以毛利将是(35000-50000)=-15000美元。电池的量产最多可以省下5000美元。(市场估计即使量产,锂电池的1KW,Tesla的成本是150美元。虽然TESLA把目标放到100元/1KW,也就是Model 3的电池价格在5000-7500美元。因为电池最少是50KW,据说是60KW的基本配备)但无论如何,成本不会是零或负数!)。所以Tesla未来的亏损会因为Model 3 而扩大! - 雅歌, 2017-08-04
- 谢谢老师的详细分析和信息! - Dolphin, 2017-08-04
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- 他的话不可以当真,要看行动 - 天狼星, 2017-08-04
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- 美国8月4日当周天然气钻井数减少3台,至189台;8月4日当周总钻井数减少4台,至954台。 - 新东, 2017-08-04
- 标普:美联储料在2017年12月份再度加息,2018年可能会加息三次、每次加息25个基点。 预计美联储将在暂停利率正常化政策上采用“通胀疲软”这样的措辞。 - Dolphin, 2017-08-04
- 富国银行递交10-Q报告,称:法律损失恐怕超过储备的33亿美元,而不是第一季度原本预料的20亿美元。
美国消费者金融保护局(CFPB)调查冻结富国银行客户的账户。
对伪造账户日期的评估范围扩大至超过三年。
更大范围的检查可能会发现,造假账户“明显地”大很多。
并不认为会大幅上调客户退款规模。
因为账户造假而产生的退款额度为326万美元。
富国银行跌幅跌超1%,暂报52.88美元。 - Dolphin, 2017-08-04
- 总统放松监管后,类似的事件可能会增加很多,最后金融危机又是纳税人买单. - Dolphin, 2017-08-04