ZT:Don't Sell This Bull Market Short (谈股论金) 465次阅读
观看【Dolphin】的博客Staying away because of high stock prices risks missing gains.
By Steven Goldberg, Contributing Columnist
July 26, 2017
Several clients have asked me recently whether they should sell some stock funds. “Isn't the
market too high?” they ask. No question, the market is richly priced today, although by some
measures it’s not as expensive as many individual investors think. Moreover, valuation isn’t
everything—in fact, as a market-timing strategy, it’s awful.
SEE ALSO: Spread Your Bets in Today's Tricky Bond Market
Let’s look at the factors supporting this market and then address the risks. Start with the breadth
of the advance.
When investors are confident about stocks, they tend to spread their bets among a wide variety of
stocks, including riskier small-company stocks and stocks that rise and fall with the economy’s
ups and downs. On that score, the market looks very strong today. The current bull market
advance has been quite broad, with most stocks participating.
“At bull market tops, you have narrowing,” says Doug Ramsey, chief investment officer at the
Leuthold Group, a Minneapolis-based investment research firm. The number of advancing stocks
tends to fall, and investors cluster in a relative handful of stocks, usually blue chips. Small caps
and mid caps lag, and stocks in the more economically sensitive Dow Jones Transportation
Average fall behind stocks in the bluer-chip Industrial Average. We haven’t seen any of that kind
of weakness yet.
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The last time a bear market began without the telltale narrowing in rising stocks was in 1946.
Don’t bet on it happening again anytime soon.
And the economy looks healthy. Bear markets typically start several months before recessions
begin. Right now, the economy’s forward-looking indicators remain strong. The Conference
Board’s Leading Economic Index chalked up its 10th consecutive increase in June. The leading
economic indicators, although hardly infallible, are fairly good at predicting whether the
economy will continue expanding in the coming months. To be sure, some other recent
indicators, such as housing starts, do show some weakening. These are worth watching, but for
now, they aren’t a big worry.
At eight years and counting, the current bull market is one of the longest in history. But the bull
may not be as old as it looks. A bear market is generally defined as a 20% decline in the major
indexes. Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index plunged 19.4% in 2011 before recovering. That’s
close enough for me. Had the S&P 500 notched a further decline of 0.6-percentage point back
then––essentially one more lackluster day–– we’d be talking about a bull market that isn’t much
more than five years old.
SEE ALSO: How 7 Top Investment Pros Are Investing in 2017
What about valuation? The S&P 500 currently trades at 19.9 times operating earnings for S&P
companies over the past 12 months. The index’s median price-earnings ratio since 1988 is 17.3.
To get down to that median level, the S&P would have to fall 13%. That would be no fun, but it
wouldn’t be a bear market.
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Operating earnings are often rightly derided as “earnings before bad stuff.” Companies typically
exclude from operating earnings taxes and interest, as well as the costs of stock options, mergers
and acquisitions, and other “one-time” charges.
That’s not the case with earnings computed according to generally accepted accounting
principles, so-called GAAP earnings. These include “bad stuff” (as well as one-time windfalls).
On a GAAP measure, the S&P currently trades at 23.1 times earnings for the past 12 months. Its
median P/E since 1988 is 20.7. A market decline of just 10% would bring the current P/E in line
with that average.
But if you look back further, the picture darkens. Since 1946, the median P/E on GAAP earnings
was 16.7. It would take a plunge of 28% in the S&P to bring stocks down to the median level of
valuation. Ouch!
The numbers get even scarier when you look at “normalized earnings”—earnings averaged over
five or 10 years to smooth out cyclical swings. The Shiller CAPE P/E, which looks at GAAP
earnings averaged over the past 10 years and adjusted for inflation, currently reads an eyepopping
30. Since 1880, it has averaged 16.7. That would imply a plunge of 44% in the S&P to
bring it down to the average.
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But hold on: Had you invested only when the Shiller P/E was below its long-term average, you
would have been out of stocks since the early 1990s, except for a brief period at the bottom of
the 2008 financial crisis. As a timing tool, normalized earnings stink.
Sam Stovall, chief investment officer of CFRA Research, is one of many market watchers who
point to low interest rates as a justification for the current high P/Es. With yields so low, bonds
offer scant competition for investment dollars, so people are willing to pay up for stocks. It’s also
very cheap for companies to borrow to fund growth, boosting the earnings part of the equation.
Anyway, comparing today’s P/Es with those in the past might be misleading, says Jim Paulsen,
chief investment strategist at Leuthold. He wonders if some of the pre-1988 P/Es are relevant
today. The U.S. economy has evolved from a primarily industrial economy to a mainly service
economy. Says Paulsen: “Wouldn’t you pay a higher P/E multiple for a steady-Eddy, predictable
services company than you would for a highly cyclical industrial stock?”
What should worried investors do? Stay the course--for now. The market is overvalued, but by
how much depends on what measures you examine. With leading economic indicators strong,
the market itself advancing broadly and the Federal Reserve proceeding cautiously in raising
interest rates, it’s difficult to see a bear market coming anytime soon. But keep your eyes open.
Even in the best of markets, a bear is always lurking.
Steve Goldberg is an investment adviser in the Washington, D.C., area.
完整帖子:
- 8/9/2017 《每日资讯时事综述股市快报》
- LilyFisher, 2017-08-08
- 8月9日财经早餐:地缘政治风险抬头,避险情绪渐升温 美元指数 延续非农后的反弹走势,美国6月JOLTs职位空缺数大幅好于预期也在盘中助推了美元的涨势。但以目前美元整体下跌格局来看,在没有明确基本面因素支撑的背景下,美元的上涨更多以短期价格修复角度来看待。而近期需关注的主要数据依然是周五(8月11日)公布的美国7月CPI,此前市场预期通胀数据较前值有所回升,但鉴于美联储2%通胀目标仍遥不可及,若没有出现超预期的结果,恐怕美元的反弹之路随时可能戛然而止。 - LilyFisher, 2017-08-08
- 原油市场各种重磅事件来袭:
① 周一至周二(8月7-8日),石油输出国组织(OPEC)和非OPEC产油国共同组成的技术委员会将会召开会议,讨论提高原油减产协议执行率的相关问题;
② 北京时间周三(8月9日)凌晨,美国能源信息署(EIA)将公布月度短期能源展望报告;
③ 北京时间周四(8月10日),OPEC将公布月度原油市场报告,一般说来具体公布时间将在北京时间18:00-20:00左右,到时可以通过汇通网7X24快讯页面来查询具体公布时间;
④ 北京时间周五(8月11日)16:00,国际能源署(IEA)将公布月度原油市场报告;
⑤ 除此之外,每周例行公布的美国API和EIA原油库存,以及周末停盘前公布的美国贝克休斯钻井报告或多或少也会对短线油价走势产生一定的干扰。 - LilyFisher, 2017-08-08
- 请问Lily,你是如何打出①的? - 雅歌, 2017-08-09
- 雅歌老师,我就是粘贴啊,原文就是这样。不好意思晚上在家俺反而更忙,就乱抄,也没改动,这才体会新东付出了多大的劳动,更别提老师您了,简直就是吐出心血的。谢谢老师。 - LilyFisher, 2017-08-09
- 请问Lily,你是如何打出①的? - 雅歌, 2017-08-09
- 巴菲特经营五十年的伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司在今年第二季度末的现金持有量达到了1000亿美元。随着股市不断创出新高,很难找到有吸引力的交易。越来越多的现金堆积也是巴菲特等待机会的明显迹象。 - LilyFisher, 2017-08-08
- 【周二美股总结】
美股周二收跌,地缘政治风险重燃投资者避险情绪,三大股指全线下挫,道指终结十连阳、撤离周一所创收盘纪录高位。迪士尼财报不佳,同时宣布将结束和奈飞之间关于流媒体的合作,并在2019年推出流媒体服务,股价盘后一度下跌近4%;美国6月JOLTS职位空缺数量创纪录新高;API原油库存降幅超预期,原油价格短线上扬后回落。周三新浪微博、网易及58同城将公布二季度财报。 - LilyFisher, 2017-08-08
- Priceline shares plunge 6% on second-quarter results . Priceline shares have gained 39.8% year to date and hit an intraday high of $2063.70 on Tuesday. 盘后 Q2 ER 15.14 vs estimated 14.2, 但Q3 展望不佳, 从2049 直降130 至1912 - lantian99, 2017-08-08
- PCLN还会下跌,网购旅行社都是季报后大跌,网购旅行社业务的发展其实已经达到饱和。特别是以美国为基地/总部的。 - 雅歌, 2017-08-09
- Priceline shares plunge 6% on second-quarter results . Priceline shares have gained 39.8% year to date and hit an intraday high of $2063.70 on Tuesday. 盘后 Q2 ER 15.14 vs estimated 14.2, 但Q3 展望不佳, 从2049 直降130 至1912 - lantian99, 2017-08-08
- ZT:Don't Sell This Bull Market Short - Dolphin, 2017-08-09
- 谢谢雅歌班童鞋们的付出! - 淡淡的天空, 2017-08-09
- 大风暴来了!特朗普“发飙”朝鲜 全球市场迎“最危险”时刻 - 兔子, 2017-08-09
- 美国8月4日当周EIA原油库存 -645.1万桶,预期 -152.7万桶,前值 -152.70万桶。 美国8月4日当周EIA库欣地区原油库存 +56.9万桶,前值 -3.90万桶。 美国8月4日当周EIA汽油库存 +342.4万桶,预期 -156.38万桶,前值 -251.70万桶。 美国8月4日当周EIA精炼油库存 -172.9万桶,预期 -83.70万桶,前值 -15.00万桶。 美国8月4日当周EIA精炼厂设备利用率变化 0.9%,预期 -0.31%,前值 1.10%。 - 兔子, 2017-08-09
- 媒体报道称,美国总统特朗普周二关于朝鲜的表态属于“即兴发挥”,甚至让自己的助理们感到意外,特朗普在发表威胁朝鲜的言论时,手里的确拿着单页谈话要点,但内容实际上是关于药品危机的情况说明书。 - Dolphin, 2017-08-09
- 一个大国的总统说话做事怎么可以这么没谱? - Dolphin, 2017-08-09
- 这即兴讲话离题实在太远了!不过市场借此卖已严重超值的股票也成定局了! - 雅歌, 2017-08-09
- 老师:这样借题释放一下卖压以后, 股市是不是又有动力继续再往上涨了? - Dolphin, 2017-08-09
- 这即兴讲话离题实在太远了!不过市场借此卖已严重超值的股票也成定局了! - 雅歌, 2017-08-09
- 一个大国的总统说话做事怎么可以这么没谱? - Dolphin, 2017-08-09
- 特朗普和朝鲜的口水战,打破了黄金本来的下行趋势, 金价又重回高位,但并没有实质性的突破。美国总统特朗普对朝鲜称,对美国构成的任何威胁都将招致“火与怒”。朝鲜周三称,考虑导弹打击关岛。 这一形势不仅影响到黄金,还波及到其他资产的走势。美元兑日元跌至近两个月新低109.53,美元兑瑞郎下跌逾1%,跌至0.9611,欧洲股市大跌逾1%,债券收益率下跌。 早在今年4月份,美国和朝鲜的紧张局势也一度引发黄金飙升,但是局势并没有实质性的恶化,金价由此录得的升幅也很快回吐。 特朗普偏激的言论并不少见,但真正付诸实施的却很少。目前的形势似乎和4月的情形相似,黄金的升势可能并不会持续太久。 局势如何发展还需进一步观察,黄金上方的初步阻力位应关注1280美元一线。这一水平位是自2016年7月以来形成的下行趋势线附近的阻力。 而本周接下来的两个交易日随之而来的风险事件也不可忽视,这包括美联储官员的讲话以及美国通胀数据。纽约联储主席杜德利周四将发表讲话,2017年FOMC票委卡普兰、卡什卡里周五将发表讲话。 周五将公布的美国通胀数据也是不可忽略的风险,若通胀回升,将打压金价下行。尤其在能源价格回升的背景下,美国通胀数据可能会走高。 - LilyFisher, 2017-08-09