有NTDOY的可参考- Nintendo: Switches on Earnings Momentum; Nomura Sees 18% Upside -Barron's Blog (谈股论金)  682次阅读

作者: 简简 , 发表于: 2017-06-06 (2731天前) @ 新东

Nintendo ( 7974.JP) shares have gained 41% this year as the Japanese games developer struck success with its Switch gaming console. But Nomura sees another 18% upside for the stock.

Analyst Junko Yamamura argues Nintendo's earnings structure has changed in light of the way it has been pushing the Switch console. Yamamura, who has a buy rating on Nintendo , has lifted his target price on the stock from JPY32,100 a share to JPY41,000 a share. The analyst notes the turnaround in Nintendo's hardware strategy is starting to bear fruit:

We have raised our forecasts for Switch sales volumes and factored in the Nintendo Switch Online fee-based service into our forecasts. We have hiked our estimates for Switch console sales from 9.7mn units to 14.0mn for 18/3, from 8.7mn to 19.0mn for 19/3, and from 43.1mn to 75.5mn for cumulative sales through 22/3. While we see a number of factors behind strong performance for the console, we think the change in the company's hardware strategy is one of them. Having a console that can be easily optimized for a range of different use scenarios means it can be used for a wide range of games, spanning from core games to motion control games. The issue facing the company at present is ramping up production capacity for the year-end shopping season.

Yamamura expects Switch to give a JPY50 billion boost to Nintendo's operating profit by fiscal 2023. The company is expected to grow its operating profit to JPY127.5 billion in fiscal 2018 from JPY29.3 billion in fiscal 2017.

We now see a greater likelihood of success for the Switch and have factored in earnings contributions from the Nintendo Switch Online fee-based service. We estimate that it will boost operating profits by Yen50.0bn in 23/3. We also look to growth in content downloads and the weighting of main title downloads. We have been focusing on changes to the company's earnings structure, and the startup of the mobile game business and the launch of the Switch have gradually started to flesh out the details. Going forward, our attention is on moves to improve shareholder returns and use of the cash that we think the company will carry on building up, for example in M&As.

Nintendo shares trade at 43 times forward earnings, which is below its five year average of 50 times, and pays a modest 0.5% dividend yield.
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