根据Barron's Blog， Q2 生药股的季报可能不如预期。 (谈股论金)  409次阅读

作者: 雅歌 , 发表于: 2018-07-16 (2265天前) @ bredsox

First-quarter earnings season may have suffered from low expectations, but the second quarter is traditionally a stronger one for the biotech industry, and there's more optimism heading into individual company reports.

Leerink's Geoffrey Porges disagrees with the bulls this time around, however.
He writes that operationally, the second quarter is a high point for the biopharma companies he covers, with the most sequential growth quarter-over-quarter, which often leads to increased guidance and improved investor sentiment. Yet this year, he writes that consensus figures already reflect much of the expected upturn, and his estimates are just in- line, and in some cases below, what the Street expects.

Porges notes that this second quarter will benefit from an additional shipping day on a year-over-year basis, and two days compared to last quarter, which may provide a 2% and 4% lift for revenue, respectively. However, he writes that price increases have "definitely moderated" this year, and have been "sparse" recently, given that worries about political action are once again in the spotlight. "This means that channel inventory may recover from Q1 lows, but will not be boosted above usual levels in the second quarter.
Moreover, he warns that currency tailwinds, which had helped international product sales, has "significantly diminished" from the first quarter.
Among specific stocks, he thinks Biogen (BIIB) is most likely to deliver better-than-expected revenue, and AbbVie (ABBV) is the company most likely to beat bottom-line estimates.