10/13/2016 中国经济状况究竟出了什么问题，出口数据大跌10%？
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作者: 雅歌 , 发表于: 2016-10-13 (2754天前)

中国经济状况究竟出了什么问题，出口数据大跌10%？

中国公布的进出口数据显示出口以美元计，下跌了10%，市场预期下跌3%。 而进口以美元计下跌了1.9%，市场预期增长1%。这以美元计的数据不如预期有部分原因是美元涨了。若以人民币计算：

中国9月份以人民币计价出口同比下降5.6%，预估增长2.5%；中国9月份以人民币计价进口同比增长2.2%，预估增长5.5%。

这难道代表中国的经济转坏了吗？

其实不然，因为：
1。中国物流与采购联合会、国家统计局服务业调查中心１日发布的数据显示，２０１６年９月份中国制造业采购经理指数（ＰＭＩ）为５０．４％，与上月持平。同日发布的中国非制造业商务活动指数为５３．７％，环比上升０．２个百分点。数据显示，房地产销售价格指数出现明显上升，连续７个月运行在５２％以上的较高水平，９月升幅明显加快，指数同样创出今年以来的阶段性高点。
http://finance.huanqiu.com/roll/2016-10/9509433.html

2。进口数据以人民币计是增长2.2%的，虽不如预期，还是增长！问题在出口下降5.6%， 这代表国家经济环境不佳，影响到出口！

3。PMI的数据比预期好，这表示国内的需求增加，完全弥补了出口的减少，中国的经济正在转型。从主要靠出口来拉动，变成内需增长拉动。这不是坏事！这表示人民平均的消费力增加，人民普遍的收入提高，积蓄也提高了！

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China's September exports fell 10 percent from a year earlier, far worse than expected, while imports unexpectedly shrank after picking up in August, suggesting signs of steadying in the world's second-largest economy may be short-lived.

The disappointing trade figures pointed to weaker demand both at home and aboard, and deepened concerns over the latest depreciation in China's yuan currency CNY=CFXS, which hit a fresh six-year low against a firming U.S. dollar on Thursday.

"This comes on the heels of weak South Korean trade data, and it definitely make us worry about to what extent global demand is improving," said Luis Kujis, head of Asia economics at Oxford Economics in Hong Kong.
Asian stocks tumbled to three-week lows and U.S. stock futures and Treasury yields fell after the data, while copper prices in London slipped. [MKTS/GLOB]
China's exports had been expected to fall 3 percent, slightly worse than in August, as global demand for Asian goods remains stubbornly weak despite heading into what is usually the peak year-end shopping season.
Weaker demand for Chinese goods was seen in nearly all of its major markets in the U.S., Europe and much of Asia.
Imports shrank 1.9 percent, dashing hopes for a second rise in a row. Imports had unexpectedly grown 1.5 percent in August, the first expansion in nearly two years, on stronger demand for coal and commodities such as iron ore which are feeding a construction boom.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-economy-trade-idUSKCN12D088
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美国最近9月份的经济数据都比预期的好，除了非农就业数据稍微不如意（然而8月份向上修正也弥补了数据的不足）。明天的零售业增长市场预估0.4%， 应该会达到或超过一些，是利多！另外JPM（预估盈利1.39元），C（1.16元）， WFC（1.01元）等大银行会公布财报，估计应该会达到或超过预期！所以明天股市大盘应该上涨！